Now you understand the basics of Asian Handicap betting and which bookmakers offer the best value, you’ll need to find a betting strategy that suits the handicap markets.
To make the most out of the Asian Handicap markets you’ll need to adjust your mindset as the betting conditions have change with the draw being eliminated from the equation.
I like to follow the below points when using the Asian Handicap markets.
Analyse both teams and the match in detail
This may sound like an obvious point but you really need to understand the circumstances that surround the match you are betting on. As the handicap markets are very specific.
i.e. Backing Arsenal to beat Crystal Palace in the match winner market is very different to them covering the -1.5 goals on the Asian Handicap.
You should ask yourself the following questions;
- Do Arsenal have any significant team news?
- Are goal scoring chances limited due to injuries?
- Do they have strong motivation for the game?
- Have Arsenal got an important match just days later?
Arsenal may have a crucial Champions League game following this match so will they really push themselves if they go 1-0 up? Probably not, so the chances of them covering a handicap bet is low. Likewise, they might be coming off the back of a tough European trip and will be tired for this game.
All of this information has to be taken into consideration before making your bets. You might find that you change your original thoughts and back Crystal Palace with the +1.5 goals advantage – as even if Arsenal do win the match by one goal you still win the bet.
Oppose the leader by using in-play Asian Handicap betting
Another strategy I often use on the Asian Handicaps works on the basis of opposing the leader in-play in football matches.
It’s common knowledge that when a team takes the lead in a match they will often concede the next goal. This is down to various reasons – teams will subconsciously sit on their lead and the opposition will have the onus to push forward and attack.
Here is an example of an in-play match;
Reading 1-0 Leeds (30 mins)
The Asian Handicap market would be priced up accordingly:
Reading -0.25 = odds of 2.000
Leeds +0.25 = odds of 1.700
- Here I would be tempted to back Leeds +0.25 as this market works on the basis the score is still 0-0.
- There is a strong possibility that Leeds will score the next goal, even if they don’t and the score remains 1-0 your bet is considered a half win.
- You will need to cast some judgment on how the match is being played out and you would want to use matches that are expected to be close affairs – don’t use this strategy when top plays bottom of the league!
- You won’t get big prices using this strategy but your success rate should be high.
Don’t look at the Asian Handicap Odds before previewing the match
I would always advise people to make up their mind on a match or event before looking at the odds and handicap lines. You should always evaluate the match and have an idea of what score you think it will before checking the odds – this is especially crucial for Asian Handicap betting.
If not, you might be swayed by the handicap given to the team on the basis that is the line that bookmaker thinks it should be. You might see Man Utd are set at -2.5 goals against MK Dons in the League Cup but it doesn’t mean they will cover it.
Always have an idea in your mind before you look at the bookmaker’s handicap lines and odds. And never be influenced by their prices! It may sound obvious but you’ll be surprised how many people base their selections on the prices quoted by the bookmaker thinking that the favourite will always win.
Find “False Favourites” and oppose them on the Asian Handicap market
Another great way to make the most of the Asian Handicap markets is to find false favourites and back against them.
As the Asian Handicap market is designed to balance out sporting events, if you can find a favourite that is way underpriced then you can use this to your advantage and back the underdog with +0.5 goals start at a decent price – meaning that if the favourite fails to win then your bet is a winner.
An example would be looking to oppose the big teams (Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Barcelona, Real Madrid etc.) when they have nothing to play for.
End of season matches against relegation or European chasing candidates are a prime example when to back the underdog on the Asian Handicap. The bookmakers will always price up the big teams as favourites in a match, but there are certain times of the season when they are considered to be false favourites.